SAC's commentaries are sought after by investment professionals and clients alike for their timely insight into the strengths, weaknesses, and future direction of the market.
Third Quarter 2019
"Weakening Economy with Non-Transitory Deflation"
Following a deceptively strong first-quarter GDP growth rate,
which was bloated by unsustainable inventory build and a drop in
imports, the economy has returned to its downward sloping path.
Virtually every economic indicator released for April and May
came in below expectations, including the latest employment
report that revealed a tepid 75 thousand payroll increase for May,
putting the economy on track to advance at less than half the
first-quarter’s pace in the current quarter. The Atlanta Fed’s
GDPNow model is forecasting a growth rate of 1.5 percent for the
period, while the New York Fed’s Nowcast model is tracking a 1.3
percent pace. Importantly, the slowdown is underpinned by
weakness in the economy’s main growth drivers – consumer
spending and business investment.
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Second Quarter 2019: "As Recession Bias Gains, Fed Goes to the Sidelines..."
First Quarter 2019: "High-Risk Investment Enviroment in 2019..." Third Quarter 2017: "Problems Ahead for Financial Assets..." Second Quarter 2017: ""Weak" Hard Economic Will Puncture The ReFlation..." First Quarter 2017: "Irrationality Won't Out Trump Reality..." Fourth Quarter 2016: "An Arduous Anabasis to The November Election..." |
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