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Fourth Quarter 2017

"Fed Unwinds Despite Inflation Misery"

Mother Nature upended the economic landscape during the late summer months, as Hurricanes Harvey, Jose, and Irma wreaked havoc domestically. The cost to the economy in terms of lost sales, output and worker hours will not be known for some time. Private and government statisticians will probably not have a full reckoning until next year. From our lens, the storms took a meaningful bite out of the economy’s growth rate in the third quarter, perhaps lowering it from a pre-hurricane consensus forecast of 2.7 percent to about 2.0 percent, with all of the damage inflicted in August and September.
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