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First Quarter 2017

"Irrationality Won't Out Trump Reality"

As the curtain rises on 2017, expectations in the financial markets are running high, as investors are pricing in faster growth – and higher inflation – than was the case a few month ago. However, this is not the first time that the winter has ushered in a blast of optimism, reflecting firmer data over the second half of the year. In most cases, however, the reality failed to live up to the hype. In five of the past six years, the economy’s performance over the first six months of the new year turned out to be weaker than the second half of the previous year. Will the opening act of 2017 suffer a similar disappointing fate? Or, should we cling hopefully to the notable caveat that past performance does not guarantee future results?
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