SAC's commentaries are sought after by investment professionals and clients alike for their timely insight into the strengths, weaknesses, and future direction of the market.

Third Quarter 2019

"Weakening Economy with Non-Transitory Deflation"

Following a deceptively strong first-quarter GDP growth rate, which was bloated by unsustainable inventory build and a drop in imports, the economy has returned to its downward sloping path. Virtually every economic indicator released for April and May came in below expectations, including the latest employment report that revealed a tepid 75 thousand payroll increase for May, putting the economy on track to advance at less than half the first-quarter’s pace in the current quarter. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is forecasting a growth rate of 1.5 percent for the period, while the New York Fed’s Nowcast model is tracking a 1.3 percent pace. Importantly, the slowdown is underpinned by weakness in the economy’s main growth drivers – consumer spending and business investment.
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